Uncovering the True Picture: Evaluating Crime Reduction Initiatives Using Disaggregate Crime Data

This paper demonstrates some of the evaluation techniques that are possible with the availability of individual-level data. It shows how this data can be used to look at changes in rates of burglary and repeat burglary in relation to crime prevention activity for any target area and comparison areas of the evaluators' choosing. The first aim of the paper is to show how the use of disaggregate crime data can reveal patterns that would otherwise be ignored or distorted. It proceeds by considering the possibility of the geographical displacement of crime to other areas, and concludes by demonstrating how accurate information on the recipients of crime prevention measures, and on burglaries in the area, can lead to detailed insights on the effectiveness of the measures taken.