Aitken, Colin and Gold, Erica (2013) Evidence evaluation for discrete data. In: Proceedings of the 59th World Statistics Congress of the International Statistical Institute, 2013. International Statistical Institute. ISBN 978-90-73592-34-6

Methods for the evaluation of evidence in the form of measurements by means of
the likelihood ratio are becoming more widespread. There is a paucity of methods
for the evaluation of evidence in the form of counts by means of the likelihood ratio.
The outline of an empirical method based on relative frequencies that takes account
of similarity and rarity is described. It is compared with two methods based on an assumption
of independence of counts and one assuming dependence between adjacent
Bernoulli variables. Examples of their performance are illustrated in the context of a
problem in forensic phonetics. There is discussion of the problems particular to the
evaluation of evidence for discrete data, with suggestions for further work.

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