EL Rashidy, Rawia Ahmed and Grant-Muller, Susan (2012) Resilience Assignment Framework using System Dynamics and Fuzzy Logic. In: UTSG 2012, January 2012, Aberdeen. (Unpublished)
Abstract

This paper is concerned with the development of a conceptual framework that measures the resilience of the transport network under climate change related events. However, the conceptual framework could be adapted and quantified to suit each disruption’s unique impacts. The proposed resilience framework evaluates the changes in transport network performance in multi-stage processes; pre, during and after the disruption. The framework will be of use to decision makers in understanding the dynamic nature of resilience under various events. Furthermore, it could be used as an evaluation tool to gauge transport network performance and highlight weaknesses in the network.
In this paper, the system dynamics approach and fuzzy logic theory are integrated and employed to study three characteristics of network resilience. The proposed methodology has been selected to overcome two dominant problems in transport modelling, namely complexity and uncertainty. The system dynamics approach is intended to overcome the double counting effect of extreme events on various resilience characteristics because of its ability to model the feedback process and time delay. On the other hand, fuzzy logic is used to model the relationships among different variables that are difficult to express in numerical form such as redundancy and mobility.

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