Kusev, Petko, Ayton, Peter, van Schaik, Paul and Chater, Nick (2006) Taking precautions is not the same as choosing gambles: Prospect theory and use of probability in risky choices. In: Society for Judgment and Decision Making The 2006 27th Annual Conference, November 17-20, 2006, Hilton Americas, Houston, Texas. (Unpublished)
Abstract

In four experiments we studied precautionary decisions where participants decided whether or not to adopt a specified precaution
with a known cost in the face of a described risk. We find that both the weighting function and the value function required to
model these decisions exhibit different properties for precautionary decisions than those observed for choices between gambles.
Overweighting of probability is observed for moderate and high probabilities – a finding not anticipated by Prospect theory. Our
results highlight a need for differentiation between models to account for precautionary behavior and models of other types of
decision-making under risk\uncertainty.

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