The Theory of Earthquakes in Signalling Severe Political Events

This research seeks to conceptualise the use of an earthquake forecasting theory to signal severe political risks such as wars, coups d’état, demonstrations and revolutions. The justification for linking the theoretical framework of an earthquake with severe political risks is twofold. Firstly, it is generally random in its nature; however, there are some patterns which can help in predicting the occurrence of future earthquakes. Secondly, an earthquake is usually region-specific, i.e. there are geographical regions which are prone to earthquakes more than other locations, and there are regions where the odds of an earthquake occurrence are minimal; however, under certain circumstances there is always a negligible possibility of such an event occurring. Severe political events are similar in their nature as they are also location-specific and random in their occurrence. In order to establish the link between these two phenomena, a clearer definition of these two variables will need to be established. Thus this theoretical research will first define the nature of severe political risks in globalised world followed by definition of an earthquake and its nature. Once a clear definition of these two variables has been established, the discussion will move towards discussion of various models for signalling severe political risks and earthquakes. It will conclude by suggesting a new approach to signalling the possibility of an occurrence of severe political events based on various assessment models and methods employed in forecasting an occurrence of an earthquake.