Fuller, Richard, Dudley, Nigel and Blacktop, Jon (2004) Older people's understanding of cumulative risks when provided with annual stroke risk information. Postgraduate Medical Journal, 80 (949). pp. 677-678. ISSN 0032-5473

Understanding how cumulative health risks increase over time constitutes an important part of decision
making about treatment risks and benefits. In this study, wide ranging perceptions of cumulative risk led to
significant overestimation and underestimation of risks over time. Time has shown to significantly impact
on the personal interpretation of cumulative risk information by patients, with many subjects struggling to
understand the concept of cumulative risks. This suggests that a careful explanation of the effect of
cumulative risk over time to patients should contribute to more effective decision making.

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