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Do structural breaks in exchange rate volatility matter? Evidence from Asia-Pacific currencies

Bilgin, Mehmet Hüseyin, Su, Yongyang and Lau, Marco Chi Keung (2011) Do structural breaks in exchange rate volatility matter? Evidence from Asia-Pacific currencies. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 26 (304). ISSN 1300-610X

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Abstract

Using the U.S. dollar exchange rate return series of three major Asia-Pacific currencies, this paper investigates the empirical relevance of structural breaks in exchange rate volatilities. We find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variances of all three exchange rate returns, implying unstable GARCH processes for these exchange rates. Various methods of accommodating structural breaks were considered when forecasting daily exchange rate volatility using GARCH models. In sharp contrast to previous evidence from currencies of developed countries, accommodating structural breaks, however, did not improve out-of-sample forecasts of exchange rate volatility, i.e., a simple GARCH(1,1) with expanding window model performed best in forecasting exchange rate volatilities in these emerging markets.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Exchange rate conversion; Structural breaks; Volatility; Asian-Pacific currencies
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Schools: Huddersfield Business School
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Chi Keung Lau
Date Deposited: 20 Nov 2017 08:48
Last Modified: 20 Nov 2017 08:54
URI: http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/33935

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