Kusev, Petko, van Schaik, Paul, Ayton, Peter and Chater, Nick (2007) Exaggerated risk. In: 21st Bi-annual Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making SPUDM 2007, 19-22nd August 2007, Warsaw. (Unpublished)

Four experiments study relative frequency judgment and recall of sequentially presented items drawn from two categories (e.g.
cities/animals). We find (a) a first-run effect whereby people overestimate the frequency of a given category when that category is the
first repeated category to occur in the sequence and (b) a dissociation between judgments and memory; respondents may judge one
event more likely than the other and yet recall more instances of the latter. Frequency judgements are influenced by the first run -
which may reflect the operation of a judgment heuristic - while free-recall is influenced by later items.

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