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The failure of transport megaprojects: lessons from developed and developing countries.

Luke, Rose, Savage, Christopher J., Jenkins, Andrew Kevin and Fransman, Logan (2017) The failure of transport megaprojects: lessons from developed and developing countries. In: Pan-Pacific Conference XXXIV: Designing New Business Models in Developing Economies, May 29 - 31, 2017, Lima, Peru.

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Abstract

Transport megaprojects are essential to economic growth and development, yet attract high risks and are prone to failure. Projects fail for a number of reasons and when they do, their impacts are severe. This is especially true in developing countries, where the cost of a project is typically far higher than those in developed countries, whose GDPs are much higher in relative terms. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the failures of megaprojects in developing and developed countries to establish as basis for comparison in the reasons for project failure. The study finds that projects in developing countries tend to be poorly justified in feasibility studies and under-resourced in operations, making them particularly prone to high failure rates.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Schools: Huddersfield Business School
Huddersfield Business School > Transport, Aviation, Logistics and Supply Chain Research Group
Related URLs:
References:

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[7] Barnard. B., 2015. Wilhelmshaven's troubled Jade Weser Port set for Maersk boost. Journal of Commerce: PortNews.
[8] Trading Economics, 2015. Germany Gross National Income 1991-2015: Who controls the world? [Online] Available from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gross-national-product [Accessed 3 January 2017].
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[10] Ansar. A., Flyvberg. B., Budzier. A., & Lunn. D., 2014. Should we build more large dams? The actual cost of hydropower megaproject development. Energy policy, 3, 1-14.
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[28] Gautrain, 2009. Ridership & fares. [Online] Available at: http://www.gautrain.co.za/about/services/ridership-fare-structure/ [Accessed 2 January 2017].
[29] Gautrain, 2010. APPROACH TO FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS. [Online] Available at: http://www.gautrain.co.za/about/uploads/2010/04/feasibility_analysis1.pdf [Accessed 13 November 2016].
[30] Brand South Africa, 2005. Gautrain benefits ‘outweigh costs’. [Online] Available at: https://www.brandsouthafrica.com/investments-immigration/business/economy/infrastructure/gautrain2810 [Accessed 14 November 2016].
[31] Mbanjwa, X., 2016. Gautrain is on track to expand. [Online] Available at: http://city-press.news24.com/Business/gautrain-is-on-track-to-expand-2016032[Accessed 17 November 2016].
[32] Cox, A., 2011. Gautrain fails to live up to promises. [Online]Available at: http://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/gauteng/gautrain-fails-to-live-up-to-promises-1133511[Accessed 22 November 2016].
[33] Mail & Guardian staff writer, 2006. Gautrain delay costs construction firm millions. [Online] Available at: http://mg.co.za/article/2006-09-01-gautrain-delay-costs-construction-firm-millions[Accessed 23 November 2016].
[34] Gautrain, 2009. GAUHISTORY: BLOGGING GAUTRAIN'S HISTORY THROUGH THE EYES OF THE PEOPLE. [Online] Available at: http://www.gautrain.co.za/newsroom/2009/06/gauhistory-blogging-gautrains-history-through-the-eyes-of-the-people/[Accessed 2 January 2017].
[35] Tomtom, 2016. Tomtom traffic index: measuring congestion worldwide. [Online] Available at: https://www.tomtom.com/en_za/trafficindex/#/list [Accessed 12 February 2016].
[36] Office of the Premier, 2016. The Economy of Gauteng. [Online] Available at: http://www.gautengonline.gov.za/Business/Pages/TheEconomyofGauteng.aspx [Accessed 22 November 2016].
[37] Coega Development Corporation.,2016. Integrated Annual Report 2015/2016. Port Elizabeth.
[38] Engineering News., 1999. [Online] Available at: http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/three-years-into-the-initiative-1999-07-02 [Accessed 29/01/2017]
[39] Toronto, B.,2005. Financial Times from Alcan delays SA smelter decision [Online] Available at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c6b9eb66-314d-11da-ac1b-00000e2511c8.html?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true [Accessed 29/01/2017]
[40] Mashile-Nkosi, D.,2011. Coega industrial zone starts to come of age. South Africa.
[41] April, Y.,2013. Assess one-stop-shop best practices for South African investment: a comparative case study of Mauritius and Egypt. Africa Insight , 42 (4), pp. 124-143.
[42] Camane, C., 2013. A framework for financing public infrastructure in South Africa. Doctoral Dissertation, Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
[43] Baker, L., Newell, P., & Phillips, J., 2014. The political economy of energy transitions: The case of South Africa. New Political Economy , 19 (6), 791-818.
[44] Republic of South Africa., 2016. South African Government. Retrieved 01 30, 2017, from Eastern Cape Economic Development on economic growth through intra-Africa trade. [Online] Available at http://www.gov.za/speeches/eastern-cape-shows-trade-pedigree-africa-21-jul-2016-0000[Accessed 29/01/2017]
[45] Naidoo, S., 2007. New Durban airport waiting for green light. [Online]
Available at: http://www.iol.co.za/world/new-durban-airport-waiting-for-green-light-358617
[Accessed 24 December 2016].
[46] Robbins, G., Scott, D. & Sutherland, C., 2011. Taking flight: The impact of the Dube-TradePort/ King Shaka International Airport mega-project on city resource allocation decisions in Durban, South Africa. [Online] Available at: http://www.chance2sustain.eu/fileadmin/Website/Dokumente/Powerpoints_York_2011/Glen_Robbins_-_ppt_21_september_2011.pdf [Accessed 13 January 2017].
[47] King Shaka International Airport, n.d. Airport Info. [Online] Available at: http://kingshakainternational.co.za/airport/[Accessed 31 December 2016].
[48] Groundwork, 2016. PORT EXPANSION SQUASHED – VICTORY FOR COMMUNITIES AND ENVIRONMENT. [Online] Available at: http://www.groundwork.org.za/archives/2016/news%2020160825%20-%20Durban%20Port%20expansion%20squashed.php[Accessed 13 January 2017].
[49] Maharaj, B. & Harilal, V., 2015. Mega-events in the South: Offside for the poor? FIFA 2010 legacy in Durban, South Africa. In: V. Viehoff & G. Poynter, eds. Mega-event Cities: Urban Legacies of Global Sports Events. Farnham, UK: Ashgate Publishing Ltd, pp. 211-221.
[50] Airports Company South Africa, 2016. KING SHAKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT - PASSENGER TRAFFIC. [Online] Available at: http://www.airports.co.za/KSIA/Stats/King_Shaka_airport_Passenger_Traffic_Dec2016.pdf[Accessed 31 January 2017].
[51] SA Commercial Prop News, 2016. Durban’s King Shaka International Airport built without a feasibility study. [Online] Available at: http://www.sacommercialpropnews.co.za/south-africa-provincial-news/kwazulu-natal/8362-durban-shaka-international-airport-built-without-a-feasibility-study.html [Accessed 19 January 2017].
[52] Garema, N., Matzinger, S. & Palter, R., 2016. Megaprojects: The good, the bad, and the better. [Online] Available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/megaprojects-the-good-the-bad-and-the-better[Accessed 2 February 2017].
[53] Murray, S., 2014. 65% of megaprojects fail; find out why and how to do them right. [Online] Available at: http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/sep-2014/65-megaprojects-fail-find-out-why-and-how-do-them-right [Accessed 23 January 2017].
[54] Guluva, B., 2011. Where has Shilowa gone?. [Online] Available at: http://www.sowetanlive.co.za/columnists/2011/07/13/where-has-shilowa-gone [Accessed 17 January 2017].

[1] United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, 2016. Transport Infrastructure Development. [Online] Available at: https://www.unece.org/trans/theme_infrastructure.html [Accessed 12 January 2017]
[2] Rodrigue, J.-P. & Notteboom, T., 2017. Transportation and Economic Development. [Online]
Available at: https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/ch7c1en.html [Accessed 3 January 2017].
[3] Flyvbjerg, B.,2014. What You Should Know About Megaprojects and Why: An Overview. Project Management Journal, 45: 6–19
[4] Fiedler. J., Kostka. G., Anzinger. N., & Schuster. S.,2016. Conclusion. In Fiedler. J. & Kostka. G. (Eds.), Large infrastructure projects in Germany: Between ambition and realities (pp. 191-201). London: Palgrave Macmillan
[5] Nicolai. B., 2016. The JadeWeser-Port in Wilhelmshaven is not a flop: The miraculous resurrection of bankruptcy harbor. Die Welt. Retrieved from https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article154035635/Die-wundersame-Auferstehung-des-Pleitehafens.html
[6] Weber. J.,2003. The project of the new Jade-Wesser port. Traffic Policy Review 15, 271-275.
[7] Barnard. B., 2015. Wilhelmshaven's troubled Jade Weser Port set for Maersk boost. Journal of Commerce: PortNews.
[8] Trading Economics, 2015. Germany Gross National Income 1991-2015: Who controls the world? [Online] Available from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gross-national-product [Accessed 3 January 2017].
[9] World Bank, 2016. World Bank Country and Lending Groups: Country Classification [Online] Available from https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups [Accessed 17 January 2017].
[10] Ansar. A., Flyvberg. B., Budzier. A., & Lunn. D., 2014. Should we build more large dams? The actual cost of hydropower megaproject development. Energy policy, 3, 1-14.
[11] Jenkins. A.K., & Savage. C.J., 2016. Will developing a gateway port in a developing country benefit the population as a whole? A case study of Walvis-bay, Namibia. Paper presented at the The 21st LRN Annual Conference and PhD Workshop 2016: Doing the Right Thing – Ethical Issues in Logistics and Supply Chain, Hull
[12] Der Spiegel,2010. How the East was lost. [Online] Available from www.spiegel.de [Accessed 27/01/17]
[13] Fiedler, J. and Wendler, A., 2016. Berlin Brandenburg Airport in Kosta, G. and Fiedler. J. (Eds.) Large Infrastructure projects in Germany: Between ambition and realities. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, p.87-145.
[14] Beria, P., & Scholz, A.B., 2010. Strategies and pitfalls in the infrastructure development of airports: A comparison of Milan Malpensa and Berlin Brandenburg International airports. Journal of Air Transport Management, 16(2), 65-73.
[15] Alberts, H.C., Bowen, J.T., & Cidell, J.L., 2009. Missed opportunities: The restructuring of Berlin’s airport system and the city’s position in international airline networks. Regional Studies, 43(5), 739-758.
[16] Aviation Daily (2003). Berlin airport effort to privatize collapses. 352 (39), 5
[17] Mense, A., & Kholodilin, K.A.,2014. Noise expectations and house prices: The reaction of property prices to an airport expansion, The Annals of Regional Science, 52(3), 763-797
[18] Bubalo, B., & Daduna, J.R.,2011. Airport capacity and demand calculations by simulation-the case of Berlin Brandenburg International Airport. NETNOMICS: Economic Research and Electronic Networking, 12(3), 161-181
[19] Flight Daily News (2014). Brandenburg: Too little, too late. May, p. 7.
[20] Aviation Daily (2017). Berlin Brandenburg Airport delayed again. Available at www.aviationweek.com, accessed 27/01/17
[21] BBC, 2016. Berlin Brandenburg airport corruption ‘whistleblower poisoned’. 2nd May. [Online] Available from www.bbc.co.uk [Accessed 27/01/17]
[22] The Guardian (2016). Spokesman for new Berlin airport sacked for deriding botched project. 12th April. [Online] Available from www.theguardian.com [Accessed 27/01/17]
[23] World Bank, 2017. Germany. [Online] Available from www.data.worldbank.org. [Accessed on 02/02/17]
[24] Kleinsteuber. S., 2002). The Jade-Weser Port: An Economic Impact Assessment. European Business School. [Online] Available from http://www.antiport.de/doku/arbeiten/s_kleinsteuber.pdf [Accessed on 02/02/17]
[25] Bremen Ports, 2014. JadeWeser Port: The Deep Sea Container Terminal Wilhelmshaven. [Online] Available from file:///C:/Users/Admin/Downloads/JWP_englisch_1.pdf [Accessed on 02/01/17]
[26] Hollmann. M.,2015. Wilhelmshaven box throughput rockets triple digits. [Online] Available from http://www.joc.com/port-news/european-ports/port-wilhelmshaven/wilhelmshaven-box-throughput-rockets-triple-digits_20151213.html [Accessed on 02/02/17]
[27] Venter, I., 2016. Gautrain agency crunching numbers on new lines, tunnels and rolling stock. [Online] Available at: http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/gautrain-agency-crunching-numbers-on-new-lines-tunnels-and-rolling-stock-2016-07-29 [Accessed 5 January 2017].
[28] Gautrain, 2009. Ridership & fares. [Online] Available at: http://www.gautrain.co.za/about/services/ridership-fare-structure/ [Accessed 2 January 2017].
[29] Gautrain, 2010. APPROACH TO FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS. [Online] Available at: http://www.gautrain.co.za/about/uploads/2010/04/feasibility_analysis1.pdf [Accessed 13 November 2016].
[30] Brand South Africa, 2005. Gautrain benefits ‘outweigh costs’. [Online] Available at: https://www.brandsouthafrica.com/investments-immigration/business/economy/infrastructure/gautrain2810 [Accessed 14 November 2016].
[31] Mbanjwa, X., 2016. Gautrain is on track to expand. [Online] Available at: http://city-press.news24.com/Business/gautrain-is-on-track-to-expand-2016032[Accessed 17 November 2016].
[32] Cox, A., 2011. Gautrain fails to live up to promises. [Online]Available at: http://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/gauteng/gautrain-fails-to-live-up-to-promises-1133511[Accessed 22 November 2016].
[33] Mail & Guardian staff writer, 2006. Gautrain delay costs construction firm millions. [Online] Available at: http://mg.co.za/article/2006-09-01-gautrain-delay-costs-construction-firm-millions[Accessed 23 November 2016].
[34] Gautrain, 2009. GAUHISTORY: BLOGGING GAUTRAIN'S HISTORY THROUGH THE EYES OF THE PEOPLE. [Online] Available at: http://www.gautrain.co.za/newsroom/2009/06/gauhistory-blogging-gautrains-history-through-the-eyes-of-the-people/[Accessed 2 January 2017].
[35] Tomtom, 2016. Tomtom traffic index: measuring congestion worldwide. [Online] Available at: https://www.tomtom.com/en_za/trafficindex/#/list [Accessed 12 February 2016].
[36] Office of the Premier, 2016. The Economy of Gauteng. [Online] Available at: http://www.gautengonline.gov.za/Business/Pages/TheEconomyofGauteng.aspx [Accessed 22 November 2016].
[37] Coega Development Corporation.,2016. Integrated Annual Report 2015/2016. Port Elizabeth.
[38] Engineering News., 1999. [Online] Available at: http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/three-years-into-the-initiative-1999-07-02 [Accessed 29/01/2017]
[39] Toronto, B.,2005. Financial Times from Alcan delays SA smelter decision [Online] Available at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c6b9eb66-314d-11da-ac1b-00000e2511c8.html?ft_site=falcon&desktop=true [Accessed 29/01/2017]
[40] Mashile-Nkosi, D.,2011. Coega industrial zone starts to come of age. South Africa.
[41] April, Y.,2013. Assess one-stop-shop best practices for South African investment: a comparative case study of Mauritius and Egypt. Africa Insight , 42 (4), pp. 124-143.
[42] Camane, C., 2013. A framework for financing public infrastructure in South Africa. Doctoral Dissertation, Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
[43] Baker, L., Newell, P., & Phillips, J., 2014. The political economy of energy transitions: The case of South Africa. New Political Economy , 19 (6), 791-818.
[44] Republic of South Africa., 2016. South African Government. Retrieved 01 30, 2017, from Eastern Cape Economic Development on economic growth through intra-Africa trade. [Online] Available at http://www.gov.za/speeches/eastern-cape-shows-trade-pedigree-africa-21-jul-2016-0000[Accessed 29/01/2017]
[45] Naidoo, S., 2007. New Durban airport waiting for green light. [Online]
Available at: http://www.iol.co.za/world/new-durban-airport-waiting-for-green-light-358617
[Accessed 24 December 2016].
[46] Robbins, G., Scott, D. & Sutherland, C., 2011. Taking flight: The impact of the Dube-TradePort/ King Shaka International Airport mega-project on city resource allocation decisions in Durban, South Africa. [Online] Available at: http://www.chance2sustain.eu/fileadmin/Website/Dokumente/Powerpoints_York_2011/Glen_Robbins_-_ppt_21_september_2011.pdf [Accessed 13 January 2017].
[47] King Shaka International Airport, n.d. Airport Info. [Online] Available at: http://kingshakainternational.co.za/airport/[Accessed 31 December 2016].
[48] Groundwork, 2016. PORT EXPANSION SQUASHED – VICTORY FOR COMMUNITIES AND ENVIRONMENT. [Online] Available at: http://www.groundwork.org.za/archives/2016/news%2020160825%20-%20Durban%20Port%20expansion%20squashed.php[Accessed 13 January 2017].
[49] Maharaj, B. & Harilal, V., 2015. Mega-events in the South: Offside for the poor? FIFA 2010 legacy in Durban, South Africa. In: V. Viehoff & G. Poynter, eds. Mega-event Cities: Urban Legacies of Global Sports Events. Farnham, UK: Ashgate Publishing Ltd, pp. 211-221.
[50] Airports Company South Africa, 2016. KING SHAKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT - PASSENGER TRAFFIC. [Online] Available at: http://www.airports.co.za/KSIA/Stats/King_Shaka_airport_Passenger_Traffic_Dec2016.pdf[Accessed 31 January 2017].
[51] SA Commercial Prop News, 2016. Durban’s King Shaka International Airport built without a feasibility study. [Online] Available at: http://www.sacommercialpropnews.co.za/south-africa-provincial-news/kwazulu-natal/8362-durban-shaka-international-airport-built-without-a-feasibility-study.html [Accessed 19 January 2017].
[52] Garema, N., Matzinger, S. & Palter, R., 2016. Megaprojects: The good, the bad, and the better. [Online] Available at: http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-insights/megaprojects-the-good-the-bad-and-the-better[Accessed 2 February 2017].
[53] Murray, S., 2014. 65% of megaprojects fail; find out why and how to do them right. [Online] Available at: http://www.infrastructure-intelligence.com/article/sep-2014/65-megaprojects-fail-find-out-why-and-how-do-them-right [Accessed 23 January 2017].
[54] Guluva, B., 2011. Where has Shilowa gone?. [Online] Available at: http://www.sowetanlive.co.za/columnists/2011/07/13/where-has-shilowa-gone [Accessed 17 January 2017].

Depositing User: Christopher Savage
Date Deposited: 02 Mar 2017 13:58
Last Modified: 22 Aug 2017 12:06
URI: http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/31178

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