Moe, S. Jannicke, Kristoffersen, Anja B., Smith, Robert H. and Stenseth, Nils Chr.
(2005)
*From patterns to processes and back: analysing density-dependent responses to an abiotic stressor by statistical and mechanistic modelling.*
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Part B Biological Sciences, 272 (1577).
pp. 2133-2142.
ISSN 0962-8452

PDF
Restricted to Registered users only Download (407kB) |

## Abstract

Our knowledge about population-level effects of abiotic stressors is limited, largely due to lack of appropriate time-series data. To analyse interactions between an abiotic stressor and density-dependent processes, we used experimental time-series data for stage-structured populations (the blowfly Lucilia sericata) exposed to the toxicant cadmium through 20 generations. Resource limitation results in competition both in the larval and the adult stages. The toxicant has only negative effects at the organism level, but nevertheless, there were positive population-level effects. These are necessarily indirect, and indicate overcompensatory density-dependent responses. A non-parametric model (generalized additive model) was used to investigate the density-dependent structures of the demographic rates, without making assumptions about the functional forms. The estimated structures were used to develop a parametric model, with which we analysed effects of the toxicant on density-dependent and density-independent components of the stage-specific demographic rates. The parameter estimates identified both synergistic and antagonistic density–toxicant interactions. It is noteworthy that the synergistic interaction occurred together with a net positive effect of the toxicant. Hence, the effects of such interactions should be considered together with the capacity for compensatory responses. The combination of the two modelling approaches provided new insight into mechanisms for compensatory responses to abiotic stressors.

Item Type: | Article |
---|---|

Additional Information: | © 2005 The Royal Society |

Uncontrolled Keywords: | non-parametric modelling, generalized additive modelling, time-series analysis, stage-specific density dependence, density–toxicant interaction |

Subjects: | Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QR Microbiology |

Schools: | School of Applied Sciences |

References: | Allee, W. C. 1938 The social life of animals. London: William Heinemann. Aviles, L. 1999 Cooperation and non-linear dynamics: an ecological perspective on the evolution of sociality. Evol. Ecol. Res. 1, 459–477. Bjørnstad, O. N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck,W., Sait, S. M. & Thomson, D. J. 1998 Population dynamics of the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed regulatory mechanisms. J. Anim. Ecol. 67, 110–126. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2656.1998.00168.x.) Bowman, A. W. & Azzalini, A. 1997 Applied smoothing techniques for data analysis: the Kernel approach with S-Plus illustrations. Oxford statistical science series, vol. 18. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press. Brillinger, D. R., Guckenheimer, J., Guttorp, P. & Oster, G. 1980 Empirical modelling of population time series data: the case of age and density dependent vital rates. Lect. Math. Life Sci. 13, 65–90. Daniels, S. 1994 Effects of cadmium toxicity on population dynamics of the blowfly Lucilia sericata. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Reading. Ellner, S., Bailey, B. A., Bobashev, G. V., Gallant, A. R., Grenfell, B. T. & Nychka, D. W. 1998 Noise and nonlinearity in measles epidemics: combining mechanistic and statistical approaches to population modeling. Am. Nat. 151, 425–440. (doi:10.1086/286130.) Forbes, V. E., Sibly, R.M. & Calow, P. 2001 Toxicant impacts on density-limited populations: a critical review of theory, practice, and results. Ecol. Appl. 11, 1249–1257. Forrest, B. 1996 Toxins and blowfly populations. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Leicester. Goodbrod, J. R. & Goff, M. L. 1990 Effects of larval population density on rates of development and interactions between two species of Chrysomya (Diptera: Calliphoridae) in laboratory culture. J. Med. Entomol. 27, 338–343. Grant, A. 1998 Population consequences of chronic toxicity: incorporating density dependence into the analysis of life table response experiments. Ecol. Model. 105, 325–335. (doi:10.1016/S0304-3800(97)00176-2.) Gurney, W. S. C., Blythe, S. P. & Nisbet, R. M. 1980 Nicholson’s blowflies revisited. Nature 287, 17–21. (doi:10.1038/287017a0.) Hanski, I. 1987 Nutritional ecology of dung- and carrionfeeding insects. In Nutritional ecology of insects, mites, spiders, and related invertebrates (ed. F. Slansky & J. G. Rodriguez), pp. 837–884. New York: Wiley. Hastie, T. J. & Tibshirani, R. J. 1990 Generalized additive models. Monographs on statistics and applied probability, vol. 43. London: Chapman & Hall. Kendall, B. E., Briggs, C. J., Murdoch, W. W., Turchin, P., Ellner, S. P., McCauley, E., Nisbet, R. M. & Wood, S. N. 1999 Why do populations cycle? A synthesis of statistical and mechanistic modeling approaches. Ecology 80, 1789–1805. Liess, M. 2002 Population response to toxicants is altered by intraspecific interaction. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 21, 138–142. (doi:10.1897/1551-5028(2002)021!0138: PRTTIAO2.0.CO;2.) Lingjærde, O. C., Stenseth, N. C., Kristoffersen, A. B., Smith, R. H., Moe, S. J., Read, J. M., Daniels, S. & Simkiss, K. 2001 Exploring the density-dependent structure of blowfly populations by nonparametric additive modeling. Ecology 82, 2645–2658. Manly, B. F. J. 1990 Stage-structured populations: sampling, analysis and simulation. London: Chapman & Hall. May, R. M. 1973 Stability and complexity in model ecosystems. Monographs in population biology, vol. 6. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Maynard Smith, J. 1974 Models in ecology. London: Cambridge University Press. McCullagh, P. & Nelder, J. A. 1989 Generalized linear models, 2nd edn. Monographs on statistics and applied probability, vol. 37. London: Chapman & Hall. Moe, S. J., Stenseth, N. C. & Smith, R. H. 2001 Effects of a toxicant on population growth rates: sublethal and delayed responses in blowfly populations. Funct. Ecol. 15, 712–721. (doi:10.1046/j.0269-8463.2001.00575.x.) Moe, S. J., Stenseth, N. C. & Smith, R. H. 2002a Density dependence in blowfly populations: experimental evaluation of non-parametric time-series modelling. Oikos 98, 523–533. (doi:10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.980317.x.) Moe, S. J., Stenseth, N. C. & Smith, R. H. 2002b Densitydependent compensations in blowfly populations give indirectly positive effects of a toxicant. Ecology 83, 1597–1603. Murdoch,W.W., Kendall, B. E., Nisbet, R. M., Briggs, C. J., McCauley, E. & Bolser, R. 2002 Single-species models for many-species food webs. Nature 417, 541–543. (doi:10. 1038/417541a.) Murua, R., Gonzalez, L. A. & Lima, M. 2003 Population dynamics of rice rats (a Hantavirus reservoir) in southern Chile: feedback structure and non-linear effects of climatic oscillations. Oikos 102, 137–145. (doi:10.1034/j.1600- 0706.2003.12226.x.) Nelson,W. A., McCauley, E. & Wimberta, J. 2004 Capturing dynamics with the correct rates: inverse problems using semiparametric approaches. Ecology 85, 889–903. Nicholson, A. J. 1954a Compensatory reactions of populations to stresses, and their evolutionary significance. Aust. J. Zool. 2, 1–8. (doi:10.1071/ZO9540001.) Nicholson, A. J. 1954b An outline of the dynamics of animal populations. Aust. J. Zool. 2, 9–65. (doi:10.1071/ ZO9540009.) Nisbet, R. M. & Gurney, W. S. C. 1982 Oscillations in laboratory fly populations. In Modelling fluctuating populations (ed. R. M. Nisbet & W. S. C. Gurney), pp. 285–308. Chichester: Wiley. Parker, G. A. 2000 Scramble in behaviour and ecology. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 355, 1637–1645. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2000. 0726.) Readshaw, J. L. & Cuff, W. R. 1980 A model of Nicholson’s blowflies cycles and its relevance to predation theory. J. Anim. Ecol. 49, 1005–1010. Saunders, D. S. & Bee, A. 1995 Effects of larval crowding on size and fecundity of the blow fly, Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae). Eur. J. Entomol. 92, 615–622. Sibly, R. M., Williams, T. D. & Jones, M. B. 2000 How environmental stress affects density dependence and carrying capacity in a marine copepod. J. Appl. Ecol. 37, 388–397. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2664.2000.00534.x.) Simkiss, K., Daniels, S. & Smith, R. H. 1993 Effects of population density and cadmium toxicity on growth and survival of blowflies. Environ. Pollut. 81, 41–45. (doi:10. 1016/0269-7491(93)90026-K.) Smith, R. H., Daniels, S., Simkiss, K., Bell, E. D., Ellner, S. & Forrest, B. 2000 Blowflies as a case study in non-linear population dynamics. In Chaos in real data: the analysis of non-linear dynamics in short ecological time series (ed. J. N. Perry, R. H. Smith, I. P. Woiwod & D. Morse), pp. 137–172. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. So, P.-M. & Dudgeon, D. 1989 Variation in the life-history parameters of Hemipyrellia ligurriens (Diptera: Calliphoridae) in response to larval competition for food. Ecol. Entomol. 14, 109–116. Stenseth, N. C. et al. 1998 From patterns to processes: phase and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 95, 15 430–15 435. (doi:10.1073/ pnas.95.26.15430.) Stephens, P. A. & Sutherland, W. J. 1999 Consequences of the Allee effect for behaviour, ecology and conservation. Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 401–405. (doi:10.1016/S0169- 5347(99)01684-5.) Stephens, P. A., Sutherland, W. J. & Freckleton, R. P. 1999 What is the Allee effect? Oikos 87, 185–190. Stokes, T. K., Gurney,W. S. C., Nisbet, R. M. & Blythe, S. P. 1988 Parameter evolution in a laboratory insect population. Theor. Popul. Theor. 34, 248–265. (doi:10.1016/ 0040-5809(88)90023-8.) Turchin, P. 1995 Population regulation: old arguments and a new synthesis. In Population dynamics: new approaches and synthesis (ed. N. Cappuccino & P. W. Price), pp. 19–40. San Diego: Academic Press. Uchmanski, J. 2000 Resource partitioning among competing individuals and population persistence: an individualbased model. Ecol. Model. 131, 21–32. (doi:10.1016/ S0304-3800(00)00242-8.) Ullyett, G. C. 1950 Competition for food and allied phenomena in sheep-blowfly populations. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 234, 77–174. Wood, S. N. 2001 Partially specified ecological models. Ecol. Monogr. 71, 1–25. |

Depositing User: | Sara Taylor |

Date Deposited: | 08 Jun 2007 |

Last Modified: | 28 Aug 2021 23:34 |

URI: | http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/226 |

### Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

### Repository Staff Only: item control page

View Item |