Reynolds, Paul Lewis and Lancaster, Geoffrey A. (2007) Predictive strategic marketing management decisions in small firms: A possible Bayesian solution. Management decision, 45 (6). pp. 1038-1057. ISSN 0025-1747

The purpose of this paper is to suggest a framework for sales forecasting more suitable for smaller firms. The authors examine the sales forecasting practices of small firms and then proceed to discuss the application of Bayesian decision theory in the production of sales forecasts, a method arguably more suited to the smaller firm. The authors suggest that many small firm entrepreneurs are inherently “Bayesian” in their thinking approach to predicting events in that they often rely on subjective estimates at least for initial starting values.

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