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The Three Prisoners Problem Revisited: issues in the use of Bayesian networks for security applications

Pickering, Jonathan and Xu, Zhijie (2008) The Three Prisoners Problem Revisited: issues in the use of Bayesian networks for security applications. In: Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Automation and Computing. ICAC, pp. 75-80. ISBN 978-0-9555294-2-0

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    Abstract

    Bayesian networks are a type of causal network used
    for probabilistic reasoning, which have found wide application in
    biomedical environments and machine vision.We have considered
    their application in the realm of security, where behaviour that
    is deliberately intended to deceive has to be considered. As a
    first step to the the analysis of this behaviour we have analysed
    problems in which an one agent provides truthfull, but evasive,
    information to the other agents.
    The three prisoners problem, and its simpler relation the
    Monty Hall problem, are classic examples of statistical analysis
    giving rise to counter intuitive results. In this paper the source
    of the counter intuitive results is identified as an agent that only
    releases partial data about the true state of the system. Furthermore
    the data that is communicated is a function of the identity
    of the agent requesting the data. Under these circumstances two
    significant results are demonstrated; first different questioning
    agents, will arrive at different probability estimates for the
    same problem. Secondly, although if all the data is requested
    the estimated probability will converge, the convergence may
    be nonmonotonic. This means that some questions, truthfully
    answered, will lead to a less precise probability measurement.
    Keywords — Bayesian reasoning; three prisoner problem;

    Item Type: Book Chapter
    Additional Information: Paper presented at the 14th International Conference on Automation and Computing (ICAC 2008 Conference), 6 September 2008, Brunel University
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian reasoning, three prisoner problem
    Subjects: T Technology > T Technology (General)
    Schools: School of Computing and Engineering
    School of Computing and Engineering > Computer Graphics, Imaging and Vision Research Group
    Related URLs:
    Depositing User: Yuanping Xu
    Date Deposited: 22 Jun 2009 12:03
    Last Modified: 05 Jan 2011 13:18
    URI: http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/4745

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