An analysis of the potential impacts of further liberalisation of the EU-African aviation market

Intercontinental air services between Europe and Africa are mainly governed by bilateral agreements negotiated between the individual countries of the European Union (EU) and the various African governments. This paper provides an overview of the regulatory trends and development of air transport between the EU and Africa, focussing on passenger traffic developments over the past five years and discusses the impact of liberalisation between Africa and the EU on the degree of concentration in airport traffic shares. The results indicate a growing role of Dubai and Istanbul and a decreasing role of European hubs as gateways to Africa. While Johannesburg, Cairo, Nairobi and Lagos remain the main international hubs in Africa, regional airport hubs have emerged in Algiers, Dar es Salaam and Casablanca. It is argued that liberalisation of the EU-Africa aviation markets is likely to result in the emergence of further African regional hubs.