Wickham, Philip A. (2006) Overconfidence in new start-up success probability judgement. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behaviour & Research, 12 (4). pp. 210-227. ISSN 1355-2554Metadata only available from this repository.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this article is to investigate the overconfidence effect on investor attitude towards new ventures investment valuation as a function of the investor involvement in estimating the venture's success probability.
Design/methodology/approach – The method used was experimental; econometric analysis within a prospect theory framework.
Findings – Participants in the role of investors are more risk seeking when they are called upon to judge success probability relative to them being offered a (reliable) success probability even when their own judgement is based on a restricted data set. Further, that investor overconfidence is a consequence of changes in risk attitude, not probability weighting.
Research limitations/implications – Opens up a number of issues relating to investor-entrepreneur opportunity perception disparity and its impact on the “investment-gap”. Considers factors that might be explored experimentally, including task confidence, investor-entrepreneur information asymmetry and source credibility. Detailed comment made on future research directions.
Practical implications – Impacts on the management of communication between entrepreneurs and investors. Six management variables that might influence disparities in investor-entrepreneur risk assessment considered in relation to findings.
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management|
|Schools:||The Business School|
|Depositing User:||Cherry Edmunds|
|Date Deposited:||14 Jan 2009 16:48|
|Last Modified:||21 Jan 2009 10:18|
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