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Statistical modelling of railway track geometry degradation using hierarchical Bayesian models

Andrade, António Ramos and Teixeira, P. Fonseca (2015) Statistical modelling of railway track geometry degradation using hierarchical Bayesian models. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. ISSN 0951-8320

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Abstract

Railway maintenance planners require a predictive model that can assess the railway track geometry degradation. The present paper uses a hierarchical Bayesian model as a tool to model the main two quality indicators related to railway track geometry degradation: the standard deviation of longitudinal level defects and the standard deviation of horizontal alignment defects. Hierarchical Bayesian Models (HBM) are flexible statistical models that allow specifying different spatially correlated components between consecutive track sections, namely for the deterioration rates and the initial qualities parameters. HBM are developed for both quality indicators, conducting an extensive comparison between candidate models and a sensitivity analysis on prior distributions. HBM is applied to provide an overall assessment of the degradation of railway track geometry, for the main Portuguese railway line Lisbon-Oporto.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
T Technology > TF Railroad engineering and operation
Schools: School of Computing and Engineering > Institute of Railway Research
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Antonio Ramos Andrade
Date Deposited: 01 Jun 2015 14:00
Last Modified: 05 Dec 2016 18:47
URI: http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/24712

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