From patterns to processes and back: analysing density-dependent responses to an abiotic stressor by statistical and mechanistic modelling

Allee, W. C. 1938 The social life of animals. London: William
Heinemann.
Aviles, L. 1999 Cooperation and non-linear dynamics: an
ecological perspective on the evolution of sociality. Evol.
Ecol. Res. 1, 459–477.
Bjørnstad, O. N., Begon, M., Stenseth, N. C., Falck,W., Sait,
S. M. & Thomson, D. J. 1998 Population dynamics of the
Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticity and delayed
regulatory mechanisms. J. Anim. Ecol. 67, 110–126.
(doi:10.1046/j.1365-2656.1998.00168.x.)
Bowman, A. W. & Azzalini, A. 1997 Applied smoothing
techniques for data analysis: the Kernel approach with S-Plus
illustrations. Oxford statistical science series, vol. 18.
Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press.
Brillinger, D. R., Guckenheimer, J., Guttorp, P. & Oster, G.
1980 Empirical modelling of population time series data:
the case of age and density dependent vital rates. Lect.
Math. Life Sci. 13, 65–90.
Daniels, S. 1994 Effects of cadmium toxicity on population
dynamics of the blowfly Lucilia sericata. Ph.D. Thesis,
University of Reading.
Ellner, S., Bailey, B. A., Bobashev, G. V., Gallant, A. R.,
Grenfell, B. T. & Nychka, D. W. 1998 Noise and
nonlinearity in measles epidemics: combining mechanistic
and statistical approaches to population modeling. Am.
Nat. 151, 425–440. (doi:10.1086/286130.)
Forbes, V. E., Sibly, R.M. & Calow, P. 2001 Toxicant impacts
on density-limited populations: a critical review of theory,
practice, and results. Ecol. Appl. 11, 1249–1257.
Forrest, B. 1996 Toxins and blowfly populations. Ph.D. Thesis,
University of Leicester.
Goodbrod, J. R. & Goff, M. L. 1990 Effects of larval
population density on rates of development and interactions between two species of Chrysomya (Diptera:
Calliphoridae) in laboratory culture. J. Med. Entomol. 27,
338–343.
Grant, A. 1998 Population consequences of chronic toxicity:
incorporating density dependence into the analysis of life
table response experiments. Ecol. Model. 105, 325–335.
(doi:10.1016/S0304-3800(97)00176-2.)
Gurney, W. S. C., Blythe, S. P. & Nisbet, R. M. 1980
Nicholson’s blowflies revisited. Nature 287, 17–21.
(doi:10.1038/287017a0.)
Hanski, I. 1987 Nutritional ecology of dung- and carrionfeeding
insects. In Nutritional ecology of insects, mites,
spiders, and related invertebrates (ed. F. Slansky & J. G.
Rodriguez), pp. 837–884. New York: Wiley.
Hastie, T. J. & Tibshirani, R. J. 1990 Generalized additive
models. Monographs on statistics and applied probability,
vol. 43. London: Chapman & Hall.
Kendall, B. E., Briggs, C. J., Murdoch, W. W., Turchin, P.,
Ellner, S. P., McCauley, E., Nisbet, R. M. & Wood, S. N.
1999 Why do populations cycle? A synthesis of statistical
and mechanistic modeling approaches. Ecology 80,
1789–1805.
Liess, M. 2002 Population response to toxicants is altered by
intraspecific interaction. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 21,
138–142. (doi:10.1897/1551-5028(2002)021!0138:
PRTTIAO2.0.CO;2.)
Lingjærde, O. C., Stenseth, N. C., Kristoffersen, A. B.,
Smith, R. H., Moe, S. J., Read, J. M., Daniels, S. &
Simkiss, K. 2001 Exploring the density-dependent
structure of blowfly populations by nonparametric additive
modeling. Ecology 82, 2645–2658.
Manly, B. F. J. 1990 Stage-structured populations: sampling,
analysis and simulation. London: Chapman & Hall.
May, R. M. 1973 Stability and complexity in model ecosystems.
Monographs in population biology, vol. 6. Princeton, NJ:
Princeton University Press.
Maynard Smith, J. 1974 Models in ecology. London:
Cambridge University Press.
McCullagh, P. & Nelder, J. A. 1989 Generalized linear models,
2nd edn. Monographs on statistics and applied probability,
vol. 37. London: Chapman & Hall.
Moe, S. J., Stenseth, N. C. & Smith, R. H. 2001 Effects of a
toxicant on population growth rates: sublethal and delayed
responses in blowfly populations. Funct. Ecol. 15,
712–721. (doi:10.1046/j.0269-8463.2001.00575.x.)
Moe, S. J., Stenseth, N. C. & Smith, R. H. 2002a Density
dependence in blowfly populations: experimental evaluation
of non-parametric time-series modelling. Oikos 98,
523–533. (doi:10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.980317.x.)
Moe, S. J., Stenseth, N. C. & Smith, R. H. 2002b Densitydependent
compensations in blowfly populations give
indirectly positive effects of a toxicant. Ecology 83,
1597–1603.
Murdoch,W.W., Kendall, B. E., Nisbet, R. M., Briggs, C. J.,
McCauley, E. & Bolser, R. 2002 Single-species models for
many-species food webs. Nature 417, 541–543. (doi:10.
1038/417541a.)
Murua, R., Gonzalez, L. A. & Lima, M. 2003 Population
dynamics of rice rats (a Hantavirus reservoir) in southern
Chile: feedback structure and non-linear effects of climatic
oscillations. Oikos 102, 137–145. (doi:10.1034/j.1600-
0706.2003.12226.x.)
Nelson,W. A., McCauley, E. & Wimberta, J. 2004 Capturing
dynamics with the correct rates: inverse problems using
semiparametric approaches. Ecology 85, 889–903.
Nicholson, A. J. 1954a Compensatory reactions of populations
to stresses, and their evolutionary significance.
Aust. J. Zool. 2, 1–8. (doi:10.1071/ZO9540001.)
Nicholson, A. J. 1954b An outline of the dynamics of animal
populations. Aust. J. Zool. 2, 9–65. (doi:10.1071/
ZO9540009.)
Nisbet, R. M. & Gurney, W. S. C. 1982 Oscillations in
laboratory fly populations. In Modelling fluctuating
populations (ed. R. M. Nisbet & W. S. C. Gurney),
pp. 285–308. Chichester: Wiley.
Parker, G. A. 2000 Scramble in behaviour and ecology. Phil.
Trans. R. Soc. B 355, 1637–1645. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2000.
0726.)
Readshaw, J. L. & Cuff, W. R. 1980 A model of Nicholson’s
blowflies cycles and its relevance to predation theory.
J. Anim. Ecol. 49, 1005–1010.
Saunders, D. S. & Bee, A. 1995 Effects of larval crowding on
size and fecundity of the blow fly, Calliphora vicina
(Diptera: Calliphoridae). Eur. J. Entomol. 92, 615–622.
Sibly, R. M., Williams, T. D. & Jones, M. B. 2000 How
environmental stress affects density dependence and
carrying capacity in a marine copepod. J. Appl. Ecol. 37,
388–397. (doi:10.1046/j.1365-2664.2000.00534.x.)
Simkiss, K., Daniels, S. & Smith, R. H. 1993 Effects of
population density and cadmium toxicity on growth and
survival of blowflies. Environ. Pollut. 81, 41–45. (doi:10.
1016/0269-7491(93)90026-K.)
Smith, R. H., Daniels, S., Simkiss, K., Bell, E. D., Ellner, S.
& Forrest, B. 2000 Blowflies as a case study in non-linear
population dynamics. In Chaos in real data: the analysis of
non-linear dynamics in short ecological time series (ed. J. N.
Perry, R. H. Smith, I. P. Woiwod & D. Morse),
pp. 137–172. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
So, P.-M. & Dudgeon, D. 1989 Variation in the life-history
parameters of Hemipyrellia ligurriens (Diptera: Calliphoridae)
in response to larval competition for food. Ecol.
Entomol. 14, 109–116.
Stenseth, N. C. et al. 1998 From patterns to processes: phase
and density dependencies in the Canadian lynx cycle. Proc.
Natl Acad. Sci. USA 95, 15 430–15 435. (doi:10.1073/
pnas.95.26.15430.)
Stephens, P. A. & Sutherland, W. J. 1999 Consequences of
the Allee effect for behaviour, ecology and conservation.
Trends Ecol. Evol. 14, 401–405. (doi:10.1016/S0169-
5347(99)01684-5.)
Stephens, P. A., Sutherland, W. J. & Freckleton, R. P. 1999
What is the Allee effect? Oikos 87, 185–190.
Stokes, T. K., Gurney,W. S. C., Nisbet, R. M. & Blythe, S. P.
1988 Parameter evolution in a laboratory insect population.
Theor. Popul. Theor. 34, 248–265. (doi:10.1016/
0040-5809(88)90023-8.)
Turchin, P. 1995 Population regulation: old arguments and a
new synthesis. In Population dynamics: new approaches and
synthesis (ed. N. Cappuccino & P. W. Price), pp. 19–40.
San Diego: Academic Press.
Uchmanski, J. 2000 Resource partitioning among competing
individuals and population persistence: an individualbased
model. Ecol. Model. 131, 21–32. (doi:10.1016/
S0304-3800(00)00242-8.)
Ullyett, G. C. 1950 Competition for food and allied
phenomena in sheep-blowfly populations. Phil. Trans. R.
Soc. B 234, 77–174.
Wood, S. N. 2001 Partially specified ecological models. Ecol.
Monogr. 71, 1–25.