Search:
Computing and Library Services - delivering an inspiring information environment

Exploring the density-dependent structure of blowfly populations by nonparametric additive modeling

Lingjaerde, Ole C., Stenseth, Nils Chr., Kristoffersen, Anja B., Smith, Robert H., Moe, Jannicke, Read, Jonathan M., Daniels, Susan and Simkiss, Ken (2001) Exploring the density-dependent structure of blowfly populations by nonparametric additive modeling. Ecology, 82 (9). pp. 2645-2658. ISSN 0012-9658

[img] PDF
Restricted to Registered users only

Download (455kB)

    Abstract

    Abundances of 12 laboratory populations of the greenbottle blowfly (Lucilia sericata) were recorded every two days for 776 d, with separate counts for larvae, pupae, and adults. Half of the populations were exposed to sublethal dosages of the toxic compound cadmium acetate; the remaining populations were considered controls. Initial density was low for half of the populations in each group, and high for the other half. In all populations, the adult abundance underwent sustained fluctuations. However, cadmium-exposed populations had smaller mean larval and adult densities, and fluctuations in adult abundance were less regular than for controls. Data from the first and the second half of the experimental period were analyzed separately in order to assess the effects of possible long-term changes in the dynamics on the estimates. Nonparametric (generalized) additive modeling (GAM) was used to investigate time series dynamics and, in particular, to explore the density-independent components and the structure of the density-dependent components of the system. Overall, cadmium populations had larger larva-to-adult survival rate and smaller adult survival rate than control populations, and for the second half of the experimental period the reproductive rate was smaller for cadmium populations than for control populations. Estimation of the density-dependent components suggested that survival from larva to adult depended nonlinearly on larval density and that increased larval density had a positive effect on larval survival at low densities. Furthermore, cadmium generally decreased vital rates. However, the analysis suggested that most of the observed differences in dynamical behavior between control and cadmium populations are related to differences in the density-independent components of the demographic rates, rather than differences in the density-dependent structure.

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: © 2001 by the Ecological Society of America
    Uncontrolled Keywords: additive models, greenbottle blowfly, cadmium, density-dependent and density-independent components, ecotoxicology, generalized additive model (GAM), Lucilia sericata, nonlinearities, nonparametric regression, population model, time series analysis
    Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General)
    Q Science > QP Physiology
    Q Science > QR Microbiology
    Schools: School of Applied Sciences
    References:

    Andrewartha, H. G.. and L. C. Birch. 1954. The distribution
    and abundance of animals. University of Chicago Press,
    Chicago. Illinois, USA.
    Begon, M., J. L. Harper, and C. R. Townsend. 1996. Ecology:
    individuals, populations and co~nmunities. Third edition.
    Blackwell Scientific, Oxford, UK.
    Begon. M., S. M. Sait, and D. J. Thompson. 1995. Persistence
    of a parasitoid-host system-refuges and generation cycles.
    Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series
    B 260:131-137.
    Bjarnstad, 0 . N.. M. Begon, N. C. Stenseth, W. Falck. S. M.
    Sait, and D. J. Thompson. 1998. Population dynamics of
    the Indian meal moth: demographic stochasticitp and delayed
    regulatory mechanisms. Journal of Animal Ecology
    67: 110-126.
    Bowman, A. W., and A. Azzalini. 1997. Applied smoothing
    techniques for data analysis. The kernel approach with SPlus
    illustrations. Clarendon, Oxford, UK.
    Caswell, H. 19890. Matrix population models: constructions.
    analysis and interpretation. Sinauer, Sunderland, Massachusetts,
    USA.
    Caswell, H. 1989b. Analysis of life table response experiments.
    1. Decomposition of effects on population growth
    rate. Ecological Modelling 46:221-238.
    Daniels, S. 1994. Effects of cadmium toxicity on population
    dynamics of the blowfly Lucilin sericntn. Dissertation. University
    of Reading, UK.
    Dennis, B., R. A. Desharnais. J. M. Cushing. and R. F. Constantino.
    1995. Nonlinear demographic dynamics: mathematical
    models, statistical methods, and biological experiments.
    Ecological Monographs 65:261-28 1.
    Ebenman, B., and B. Pearsson. 1988. Size structured populations: ecology and evolution. Springer-Verlag, Berlin,
    Germany.
    Ellner, S. P.. and P. Turchin. 1995. Chaos in a noisy world:
    new methods and evidence from time series analysis. American
    Naturalist 145:343-374.
    Forrest, 1996. Toxins and blowflp populations. Dissertation.
    University of Leicester, UK.
    Gurney. W. S. C., S. P. Blythe. and R. M. Nisbet. 1980.
    Nicholson's blowflies revisited. Nature 287: 17-2 1.
    Gurney. W. S. C., S. P. Blythe. andT. K. Stokes. 1999. Delays,
    demography and cycles: a forensic study. Advances in ecological
    research 28: 127144.
    Gunley. W. S. C., and R. M. Nisbet. 1998. Ecological dpnamics.
    Oxford University Press, New York, New York, USA.
    Gurney, W. S. C., R. M. Nisbet, and J. H. Lawton. 1983. The
    systematic formulation of tractable single species population
    models incorporating age-structure. Journal of Animal
    Ecology 52:479-495.
    Hanski, I. 1987. Nutritional ecology of dung- and carrionfeeding
    insects. Pages 837-884 in: F. Slanskp and J. G.
    Rodriguez, editors. Nutritional ecology of insects, mites,
    spiders. and related invertebrates. John Wiley and Sons.
    Hart, J. D. 1997. Non-parametric smoothing and lack-of-fit
    tests. Springer, New York.
    Hastie, T.. and R. Tibshirani. 1990. Generalized additive
    models. Chapman and Hall, London.
    Leirs, H.. N. C. Stenseth, J. D. Nichols. J. E. Hines, R. Verhagen,
    and W. Verheyen. 1997. Stochastic seasollalitp and
    nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population
    size in an African rodent. Nature 389:176-180.
    May. R. M. 1973. Stability and conlplexity in model ecosystems.
    Princeton University Press, Princeton. New Jersey,
    USA.
    Map, R. M. 1976. Models for single populations. Pages 5-
    29 irl R. M. May, editor. Theoretical ecology. Blackwell
    Scientific. Oxford. UK.
    Nicholson, A. J. 1950. Population oscillations caused by
    competition for food. Nature 165:476-477.
    Nicholson, A. J. 1954n. Compensatory reactions of populations
    to stress, and their evolutionary significance. Australian
    Journal of Zoology 2: 1-8.
    Nicholson, A. J. 19548. An outline of the dynamics of animal
    populations. Australian Journal of Zoology 2:9-65.
    Nicholson, A. J. 1957. The self-adjustment of populations to
    change (with discussion). Cold Spring Harbour Symposia
    on Quantitative Biology 22: 153- 173.
    Orzack. S. H. 1997. Life-history evolution and extinction.
    Pages 273-302 irz S. Tuljapurkar and H. Caswell, editors.
    Structured-population models in marine. terrestrial and
    freshwater systems. Chapman and Hall, New York, New
    York, USA.
    Oster, G. 1977. Internal variables in population dynamics.
    Lectures in Mathematics in the Life Sciences 8:37-68.
    Oster, G. 1981. Predicting populations. American Zoologist
    21:83 1-844.
    Readshaw, J. L., and W. R. Cuff. 1980. A model of Nicholson's
    blowfly cycles and its relevance to predation theory.
    Journal of Animal Ecology 49: 1005- 10 10.
    Readshaw, J. L., and A. C. M. van Gerwen. 1983. Agespecific
    survival, fecundity and fertility of the adult blowflp
    Lucilia cupririn in relation to crowding, protein food and
    population cycles. Journal of Animal Ecology 52:879-887.
    Sirnkiss, K., S. Daniels, and R. H. Smith. 1993. Effects of
    population density and cadmium toxicity 011 growth and
    survival of blowflies. Environ~nental Pollution 81:41-45.
    Smith, R. H., S. Daniels, K. Simkiss, E. D. Bell, S. Ellner. and
    B. Forrest. 2000. Blowflies as a case study in non-linear
    population dynamics. Pages 137-172 irl J. N. Perry, R. H.
    Smith. I. P. Woiwod, and D. Morse, editors. Chaos in real
    data: the analysis of non-linear dynamics in short ecological
    time series. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
    Stenseth. N. C.. K.-S. Chan. E. Framstad, and H. Tone. 1998. -
    Phase- and density-dependent population dynamics in Norweglan
    lemmings: interaction between deterministic and stochastic
    processes. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 265:
    1957-1968.
    Stenseth, N. C., W. Falck, 0. N. Bjgirnstad. and C. J. Krebs.
    1997. Population regulation in snowshoe hare and Canadian
    lynx: asymmetric food web configurations between
    hare and lynx. Proceedings from the National Academy of
    Sciences USA 94:5 147-5152.
    Sugihara, G., and R. M. Map. 1990. Non-linear forecasting
    as a way of distinguishing chaos from measurement error
    in time series. Nature 344:734-741.
    Takens, F. 1994. Analysis of non-linear time series with noise.
    Technical Report, 20 March 1994 Department of Mathematics.
    Groningen University. Groningen. The Netherlands.
    Tong. H. 1990. Non-linear time series: a dynamical system
    approach. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
    Tong, H. 1995. A personal overview of non-linear time-series
    analysis from a chaos perspective, with discussions and
    comments. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 22:399-446.
    Turchin, I+ 1995. Population clpnamics. Pages 19-40 irz N.
    Cappuccino and P. Price, editors. Academic Press. New
    York, New York, USA.
    Ullyett, G. C. 1950. Competition for food and allied phenomena
    in sheep-blowfly populations. Philosophical Transactions
    of the Royal Society of London B 234:77-174.
    Wiesenfeld. K., and F, Moss. 1995. Stochastic resonance and
    the benefits of noise: from ice ages to crayfish and squids.
    Nature 373:33-36.
    WLI, Y. C. 1978. An experimental and theoretical study of
    population cycles of the blowfly, Phneriicin sericnrn (Callipl~
    orirlae), in a laboratory ecosystem. Dissertation. University
    of California-Berkeley, California, USA.

    Depositing User: Sara Taylor
    Date Deposited: 08 Jun 2007
    Last Modified: 10 Sep 2010 10:22
    URI: http://eprints.hud.ac.uk/id/eprint/223

    Document Downloads

    Downloader Countries

    More statistics for this item...

    Item control for Repository Staff only:

    View Item

    University of Huddersfield, Queensgate, Huddersfield, HD1 3DH Copyright and Disclaimer All rights reserved ©